The Effects of Policy Uncertainty on the Choice and Timing of Foreign Direct Investment: An Exploratory Firm-Level Assessment

نویسندگان

  • Ramkishen S. Rajan
  • Sanjay Marwah
چکیده

As foreign investors tend to be skeptical about the durability of economic reforms being undertaken in a number of developing countries on the one hand, and insofar as physical capital is partly or fully irreversible on the other, even if investors are risk-neutral, they tend to favor a `wait-and-see’ attitude in the early stages of the reforms. This paper is an exploratory attempt at providing a simple unifying framework that makes explicit and clarifies thinking on the inter-linkages between policy uncertainty, option value and the choice and timing of FDI at a firm-level. The model is used as the basis for the derivation of a generalized reduced form relationship between FDI at a micro-level and its influencing variables.

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تاریخ انتشار 1998